Active Systems
None
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
The remnants of Issac are approaching the northwestern Gulf coast this morning. This will enhance thunderstorm activity across the western Gulf through this weekend. Regeneration is not expected.
Disturbance 39 is located over the west-central Caribbean along 78W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 21 mph. Squalls have decreased with the disturbance and there are no signs of organization. Tropical development is not expected.
Disturbance 41 is located near 12.3N / 51.5W or about 650 miles east-northeast of Trinidad. There is a 30 percent chance that the disturbance could develop into a tropical depression prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean this weekend. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a depression, it may produce increased showers and thunderstorms across the islands of the eastern Caribbean over the weekend.
A strong tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. This has been identified as Disturbance 43. It is located over 700 miles to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands along 17W. It is moving to the west at 18 mph. Conditions will be favorable for the slow development of this system over the next several days as it tracks westward across the tropical Atlantic. There is a 50 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. It could reach the Lesser Antilles in about 7 to 8 days.
Disturbance 42 is a non-tropical low located about 45 miles east of Bermuda. It is moving southward at 10 mph. Thunderstorm activity has decreased with the low due to dry air and strong wind shear. The chance of subtropical or tropical development remains low at near 10 percent. The low is expected to turn to the southwest and west and pass to the southwest of Bermuda this weekend into early next week.
A low-pressure center will develop to the east of Disturbance 42 along the frontal boundary this weekend. We think that there is a 70 percent chance that a subtropical or tropical storm could develop west of the Azores next week. If development should occur, then the system would most likely track northward and out to sea.
Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / David Piech
