Current Location: 15.3N, 68.2W
Geographic Reference: 195 miles south-southwest of Puerto Rico.
Movement: West at 12 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Decreasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Weakening and dissipation are forecast to occur Sunday southeast of Jamaica.
Our Forecast
Isaac is tracking westward through the central Caribbean Sea. The sustained winds remain near 35 mph. Isaac could degenerate into an open wave at any time. We think Isaac will dissipate southeast of Jamaica on Sunday morning.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Jim Palmer
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 15.30N | 68.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 15.30N | 70.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 15.50N | 72.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 15.80N | 73.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 16.10N | 75.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
