Because this storm is no longer a potential threat to your company’s area of concern, this is the final advisory that you will receive via email. Future advisories can be accessed on your StormGeo website.
Current Location: 34N, 78W
Geographic Reference: 5 Miles WNW of Cape Fear, NC
Movement: West-southwest at 4 mph
Max Winds: 85 mph gusting to 105 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 6 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 6 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 180 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 180 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Florence will be slow to weaken today, as the center may briefly drift back offshore late this morning.
2. A catastrophic inland flood event remains possible for North and South Carolina.
Our Forecast
Radar imagery indicates that Florence has begun the expected southwesterly turn after making landfall in Wilmington. The center of Florence may briefly move back out over the water west of Cape Fear late this morning before turning back to the west and moving inland this afternoon . As a result, Florence will only very slowly weaken during the day today. More rapid weakening will occur tonight and tomorrow morning as Florence tracks westward through central South Carolina. By Sunday morning, Florence will have weakened to a remnant low over northwestern South Carolina as it accelerates northward, passing eastern Kentucky on Monday and into western Pennsylvania on Tuesday.
Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Significant wind and tidal surge damage is occurring along the coast. Catastrophic damage from inland flooding is also possible for southeastern parts of the state.
South Carolina: Wind damage is likely, along with widespread power outages for the northern coast. Severe flooding is also expected for northeast South Carolina as Florence moves slowly through the area tonight and on Saturday.
Southern and SE Virginia : Occasional heavy rain will result in localized street flooding and minor travel delays.
Georgia and Tennessee: The heaviest rainfall will remain well east of Georgia and Tennessee. However, localized street flooding is possible in northeastern Tennessee.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 25-35 feet are occurring offshore North Carolina. These seas will be slow to subside over the next 24-48 hours.
We will issue an intermediate advisory by 1 PM EDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 34.00N | 78.00W | 85 mph | 105 mph | Category 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 33.80N | 78.40W | 85 mph | 105 mph | Category 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 33.70N | 78.80W | 80 mph | 100 mph | Category 1 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 18 | 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.70N | 79.30W | 75 mph | 90 mph | Category 1 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.70N | 79.60W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 30 | 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.70N | 80.20W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.90N | 80.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 34.70N | 81.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 36.10N | 83.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 17 | 37.90N | 82.80W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 17 | 39.70N | 81.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 18 | 41.20N | 78.80W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
