Current Location: 22.5N, 76W
Geographic Reference: Over the southern Bahamas
Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 50 percent
Key Points
1. The chance of development has been raised from 40 percent to 50 percent.
2. The system is expected to move toward the north central or northwest Gulf coast next Tuesday or Wednesday.
3. Regardless of tropical development, the disturbance is likely to bring heavy rainfall to the north central and northwest Gulf coastal areas.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 30 is moving slowly through the southern Bahamas. The disturbance is expected to increase its forward speed tomorrow as it moves toward the Florida Keys and or South Florida. Thereafter, it should move into the Gulf. The most likely heading once in the Gulf is a track toward southeast Louisiana late Tuesday or early Wednesday, which is in agreement with the American and European models. After moving into Louisiana, there is a major disagreement with the European and American models. The American model forecasts a quick motion to the north, while the European model is for a track more to the west and eventually to the west-southwest, with a reduction in forward speed. Since a ridge is likely to build north of the system as it approaches Louisiana, and the fact that the other models also agree on a west-southwest turn, our forecast leans toward the European model. Thus, the system could move into southeast Texas by next Thursday or Friday.
Despite strong wind shear existing over the system, the disturbance has become a little better organized this evening. The latest model guidance indicates a little more development than it did previously. The chance of development was conservatively raised from 40 percent to 50 percent. If development were to occur, we do not believe the system will intensify beyond a moderate tropical storm. After landfall, weakening is expected.
Regardless as to whether or not development occurs, the system will bring increased moisture to the north central and northwest Gulf coastal areas. Thus, heavy rains are possible for the middle and latter parts of next week.
Expected Impacts on Land
SE Texas through SW Mississippi: At a minimum, locally heavy rains could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Increased squalls will likely move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By very early Tuesday morning, the squalls should move into the lease areas off of southeast Louisiana. Gusts could reach up to 50 mph within any squalls.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 01 | 22.50N | 76.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Sun Sep 02 | 24.50N | 80.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 26.50N | 85.50W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 27.70N | 87.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.70N | 89.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 84 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.00N | 90.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.60N | 92.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 108 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 31.00N | 93.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 30.50N | 94.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 132 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 30.00N | 95.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
