Disturbance 30 Track Chart, Advisory #1

Current Location: 22.3N, 75.5W
Geographic Reference: Over the Eastern Bahamas
Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Disturbance 30 is causing scattered heavy thunderstorms across the eastern Bahamas this afternoon as it tracks west-northwestward toward the Florida Straits. Our forecast takes the disturbance across the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday night then into the southeast Gulf of Mexico early on Monday. Recent computer models are a little more bullish on this disturbance developing a low-level circulation center prior to moving ashore into the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. We think that there is a 40 percent chance that the disturbance will become a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm prior to moving ashore on Wednesday.

Regardless of whether or not this disturbance is ever classified as a tropical depression or a tropical storm, it will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and south Florida over the weekend and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. These thunderstorms may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph along with locally rough seas offshore. Heavy rain across the Bahamas and south Florida may cause localized travel issues this weekend. The heavy rain will move into the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading heavy rain from the Florida Panhandle west to east Texas on Wednesday and Thursday.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT this evening.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category
0 3PM CDT Sat Sep 01 22.30N 75.50W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance
24 3PM CDT Sun Sep 02 23.60N 78.70W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance
48 3PM CDT Mon Sep 03 25.80N 83.30W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance
72 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 28.30N 88.40W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Disturbance
96 3PM CDT Wed Sep 05 30.70N 91.70W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance
120 3PM CDT Thu Sep 06 31.00N 93.60W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Disturbance

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.