Geographic Reference: 60 miles W of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North-northwest at 5 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
1. There is an 80 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi between Friday and Tuesday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.
Our Forecast
The poorly organized center of Disturbance 3 (Invest 90L) is located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning. There has been little change in the organization of Disturbance 3 over the past several hours. Strong westerly wind shear continues to displace most of the squalls well to the east of the low pressure area. That wind shear is predicted to continue as the disturbance tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into this weekend. However, we think that the wind shear across the northeast Gulf may decrease just enough on Saturday that the disturbance could be classified as a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm prior to moving inland over the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday night.
There has been some shifting of the model guidance overnight. The European operational model which has been the farthest west of the models has shifted the track eastward to over far southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Coast early next week. Meanwhile, the American operational model which had the track over the southern Florida Peninsula previously has shifted westward to over the eastern Florida Panhandle for early next week. The ensemble runs of the American model have not changed much and still indicate a track over northwest Florida and southern Alabama late Sunday into Monday. Since there seems to be some slight convergence of some of the model guidance overnight, our track remains almost unchanged this morning with only a very slight adjustment of the track to the west by a few miles.
It is not best to focus on the exact track of this system in regards to impacts. Given that this will remain a lopsided tropical system, the strongest winds and heaviest squalls will remain to the east of where the low will track. In some cases, these squalls may be several hundred miles to the east and northeast of the low pressure center. Keep in mind that heavy rain is expected regardless of whether or not the disturbance is ever upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm. Widespread heavy rain may cause significant travel issues across the southeastern U.S. between Friday and Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to early Monday with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce isolated power outages.
Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from late Sunday through Wednesday, resulting in travel issues.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9AM CDT.
Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / Dion Delao
| Forecast Confidence: Below Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Thu May 24 | 20.60N | 87.90W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Thu May 24 | 21.80N | 87.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Fri May 25 | 22.90N | 87.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Fri May 25 | 24.00N | 87.10W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Sat May 26 | 25.20N | 86.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Sat May 26 | 26.60N | 86.60W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.10N | 86.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 84 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 29.60N | 86.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.90N | 87.10W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 32.00N | 87.50W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.90N | 88.10W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
