The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update (yesterday) to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the following text along with the attachment to supplement this updatethat details low water stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).

Lowest stages of 2023 are still occurring over portions of the lower Mississippi River while rises are occurring on the middle Mississippi River.


Record lows on the lower Ohio River are continuing to move downstream on the lower Mississippi River.  This morning, Memphis, TN was at -11.8ft and Helena, AR was at -4.6ft.  Both sites have broken their all time record lows set last week and each site may continue to set records over the next few days.  The remaining downstream locations are forecast to remain above record low levels.


The lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL was at 5.6ft this morning and it will continue to oscillate between 4 and 6ft over the next few weeks. 


The minor rises on the middle Mississippi River should reach their peak later this week and maintain those levels into early next week.  The rises from the middle Mississippi River are expected to keep the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers slightly above the current record low levels.


The 7 day rainfall forecast shows 0.5 to 1.5 inches over portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys later this week.  Right now, the river models are not showing much benefit from this rainfall.


The 16 day rainfall forecast is now showing less rises on the lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL. and it keeps stages slightly above record levels through the second week of November.” (Emphasis supplied)


The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1100 hours today was 2.09 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.08 feet.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will remain steady between 2.7 feet and 2.4 feet with a projection of 2.6 feet November 13 (2023). Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.

The diagram below is the 72-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF).