A forecast update provided today by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is here. The reading at the Carrollton Gage was 11.75 feet at 1500 hours today with a change over the last 24-hours of – 0.22 feet. The highest crest on the Carrollton Gage (New Orleans) to date in 2022 was a reading of 13.82 feet which occurred on March 22 at 2100 hours.
The following details are reproduced from the attached report:
“Heavy rain fell over parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri during the past two days. One to two inches of additional rainfall is expected over the Ohio Valley today. This rainfall is causing significant rises on the middle Mississippi and Arkansas Rivers and rises on the Ohio River. Forecast crests on the middle Mississippi River above the confluence with the Ohio River will be the highest levels of the season and near levels from March of 2021.
Minor to moderate flooding is forecast on the middle Mississippi River. Cape Girardeau, MO is forecast to crest at 38.0ft on May 10th and Thebes, MO is forecast to crest at 37.0ft on May 11th.
Minor flooding is also expected on the lower Ohio River with Cairo, IL forecast to crest slightly above flood stage at 40.5ft on May 13th.
As rises continue downstream on the lower Mississippi River, minor flooding is also forecast at Natchez, MS and Red River Landing, LA with crests expected for the third week of May.
Crest levels on the lower Mississippi River are expected to be near or slightly higher than what occurred at the end of April.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance doesn’t show much additional rainfall so guidance levels are similar to the official forecasts for the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers.”
(There is disparity in several forecasts due to the experimental nature of predicting both future rainfall and the resultant impact on the moving stage data on a complex river system, although a slow rise next week is expected with crest near 12.0 feet on the Carrolton Gauge (approximately 5/22/22.)