•  Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory initiated at 10 AM Wednesday.
• Tropical Storm Watch Mouth of MS River to Morgan City.
• Storm Surge Watch Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.
• Atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures favor strengthening and tropical system expected to develop into hurricane late Friday into the weekend before reaching the coast.

TS Wind Speed Probabilities

 

• Low Pressure is expected to move southwest and develop into a Tropical Storm on Thursday
• Tropical system is expected to turn north west Friday and Saturday and approach the coast as a hurricane.
• Tropical Storm Force Winds could begin as early as late Thursday into early Friday.

Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

 

• Highest Hurricane Wind Probabilities are currently along the coast west of the Mississippi River.
• However, this will be highly dependent on adjustments to track.

Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival

 

• Earliest reasonable time of Tropical storm force winds – late Thursday into early Friday.
• Most likely time of tropical storm wind would be Friday.

Storm Surge Watch

• Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mouth of Pearl River to Morgan City.
• Expect storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level in the Watch area.
• Storm Surge Flooding of 1 to 3 in Lakes Pontchartrain /Maurespas and MS Coast.

MS River Forecast

 

Mississippi River

• Storm surge near Mouth of Mississippi River of up to 3-5 ft late Friday or early Saturday.
• Potential storm surge of around 3-4 ft expected along the lower Mississippi River from New Orleans area southward
• New Orleans Carrollton Gage Forecast – Approximately 20 ft late Friday into Saturday.

Expected Storm Total Rainfall

 

• Widespread rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches.
• Some areas may receive near 18 inches.
• Greatest threat of heavy rainfall will be from Friday through Sunday.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook

 

• Although only Slight Risk of heavy rainfall on Friday – this may increase with time as confidence grows in forecast track.

Tornado Potential