Disturbance 3 Track Chart, Advisory #4

Current Location: 20.0N, 94.5W
Geographic Reference: 265 miles SE of Tampico, MX
Movement: West-northwest at 3 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 40 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Development: 60 percent

Key Points
1. Regardless of development, the greatest threat to Mexico is flooding from heavy rainfall.
2. We expect Disturbance 3 to make landfall near Tampico on Tuesday morning.
3. Strong wind shear will keep the threat very low for Texas. The only impact to Texas from the system will be heavy rainfall.

Our Forecast
Squalls associated with Disturbance 3 have increased over the past several hours, however the system remains disorganized. The latest satellite imagery is indicating that the center of the system may have redeveloped a bit northeast, closer to the thunderstorm activity. The system will have a chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours and could become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Tuesday morning. After moving inland, rapid weakening is expected. In the unlikely event that the system were to remain offshore and move toward Texas, strong westerly wind shear would likely cause the system to dissipate before making landfall.

Disturbance 3 will move to the west-northwest today before turning more to the northwest tonight into Monday. The northwest motion should continue until the system dissipates over northeastern Mexico late Tuesday. Thereafter, the remnants of the system will likely move toward southern Texas.

Since the system is not forecast to be any stronger than a minimal tropical storm, the greatest threat will be flooding from heavy rainfall. This threat will occur regardless as to whether or not the system develops into a depression or a tropical storm. Some of the rainfall will likely spread northward into Texas late Tuesday through Thursday.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Northeast Mexico – Tampico Area: Isolated power outages may occur due to strong winds. Widespread street flooding is expected. Some flood damage may occur, especially in areas that experience mudslides.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche to Offshore Tampico, MX: Scattered squalls will produce wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally rough seas.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Justin Petrutsas

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Sun Jun 02 20.00N 94.50W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
12 9PM CDT Sun Jun 02 20.20N 95.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 1 1
24 9AM CDT Mon Jun 03 20.50N 95.50W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
36 9PM CDT Mon Jun 03 21.20N 96.40W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
48 9AM CDT Tue Jun 04 22.30N 97.70W 40 mph 45 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
60 9PM CDT Tue Jun 04 23.50N 98.20W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five years. Over the past five tropical cyclone seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, strong winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.