Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 54 has formed in the Bay of Campeche along 95W. It is moving to the west-northwest near 5 mph. This motion should take the system inland over mainland Mexico by tomorrow afternoon. While there is a large area of squalls associated with the disturbance, there are no signs of organization. Environmental conditions are marginal at best for further development. The chance of the system becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm is only 5 percent. That said, squalls associated with the system could produce winds gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range for the western Bay of Campeche today and early tomorrow.

Disturbance 53 is located along 62.5W, in the eastern Caribbean. It is moving to the west near 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue, which will take the system toward the western Caribbean by the weekend. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for further development. There is only a 5 percent chance of tropical development.

Disturbance 49 has moved into the eastern Pacific, where there is a near 100 percent chance of tropical development. It was removed from the analysis as it is no longer an Atlantic system.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / Nick Kosar