Because this storm is no longer a potential threat to your company’s area of concern, this is the final advisory that you will receive via email. Future advisories can be accessed on your StormGeo website.
Current Location: 36.2N, 77.5W
Geographic Reference: 20 miles NNE of Raleigh, NC
Movement: Northeast at 19 mph
Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 4 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 11 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 4 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 205 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 415 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Wind gusts to over 50 mph in squalls north of Michael will cause power outages this afternoon and this evening.
2. Michael will move offshore in about 6 hours then accelerate out to sea, leaving improving weather in its wake across the East U.S. Coast.
Our Forecast
Michael is accelerating across northeastern North Carolina this afternoon. We have not observed any sustained 39+ mph winds near its center over the past 3 hours, though we have seen reports of wind gusts over 55 mph in squalls north of the center. A narrow band of squalls that has moved east of Wilmington produced sustained winds to 42 mph in the past hour with gusts to 62 mph
Michael will be reaching the coast of Virginia within the next 6 hours before accelerating out to sea to the northeast. Some strengthening is expected as the center moves back offshore, which could result in sustained tropical storm-force winds along the coasts of Virginia and Maryland this evening.
After moving offshore, Michael will be transitioning into a very large non-tropical low pressure system that will accelerate out to sea at nearly 60 mph, passing south of Newfoundland on Saturday morning.
Expected Impacts Inland
Georgia, the Carolinas, and Eastern Virginia: Moderate to heavy rain over the next 6 hours may cause some local flooding travel issues. Wind gusts of over 50 mph in squalls will produce power outages across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia over the next 3-6 hours.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 6 PM EDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 10 PM EDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Cameron Self
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 36.20N | 77.50W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | 9PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 37.10N | 75.80W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 38.40N | 73.10W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Extratropical Storm | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | 9AM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 40.00N | 69.40W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 41.70N | 64.40W | 70 mph | 85 mph | Extratropical Storm | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 30 | 9PM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 43.00N | 60.00W | 70 mph | 85 mph | Extratropical Storm | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 44.70N | 53.70W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 42 | 9AM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 46.00N | 46.80W | 50 mph | 70 mph | Extratropical Storm | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 46.90N | 39.50W | 50 mph | 70 mph | Extratropical Storm | 3 | 2 | 5 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
