Current Location: 28.5N, 85.7W
Geographic Reference: 105 miles south of Panama City, FL
Movement: North-northwest at 10 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Organizational Trend: Intensifying
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- Alberto has intensified this evening. Aircraft has found winds of at least 60 mph
- Landfall is expected around midday tomorrow between Panama City and Ft. Walton with 65 mph winds.
- There remains a threat of flooding rains.
Our Forecast
Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds have increased to at least 60 mph. This is despite a decrease in squalls near the center. The model guidance does allow for a little additional intensification before landfall. However, the current thinking is that Alberto should remain a little below hurricane intensity. Weakening is expected after landfall.
Alberto has jogged a little further to the northwest. However, we expect the north-northwest motion to resume. The jog has resulted in a slight west shift in the forecast track. Landfall should occur between Ft. Walton and Panama City around midday tomorrow.
Despite the current decrease in squalls, there is a chance that they will return as Alberto is making landfall. Therefore, we still think that there will be an area that receives moderate rain impacts along the path of the storm, mainly on the Florida Panhandle and into southern Alabama.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – No squalls expected. Winds will remain below tropical storm strength.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to occur through much of Monday. This may lead to periods of street flooding, resulting in travel delays.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Widespread power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall. Some damage, mainly to signs, is also possible. Significant travel delays could occur in the areas that receive the highest rainfall totals.
An intermediate advisory will be issued at 12 AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 3 AM CDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.50N | 85.70W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Subtropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.00N | 86.30W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | 12PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.40N | 86.50W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.50N | 86.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 33.50N | 87.30W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 35.60N | 87.20W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
