Current Location: 19.5N, 85.7W
Geographic Reference: 100 miles ESE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: Nearly Stationary
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles
Organizational Trend: Little change during past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points

1. There is a significant flood risk to the central Gulf Coast early next week
2. We are now forecasting Alberto to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast with 65 mph winds.
3. There is a 25 percent chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane before landfall.

Our Forecast
Alberto has changed little in terms of organization overnight. The center remains well west of the heavy squalls. The center should reform closer to an area of squalls near the western tip of Cuba later today. Once this reformation occurs, Alberto will have a chance to intensify somewhat. Our forecast is for gradual intensification starting tomorrow morning. By the time Alberto reaches the coast, it is forecast to have winds of 65 mph. We cannot rule out the possibility of Alberto intensifying more than forecast. In fact, there is a 25 percent chance that it could be a hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall.

There has been little change to the forecast track. We continue to forecast Alberto to move to the north and then to the northwest, toward the north-central Gulf coast. Landfall is still forecast to occur somewhere between Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle. This is expected to occur late Monday. After landfall, Alberto should move to the north. The forecast is for it to become a remnant low in Tennessee.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon to Lund – Squalls are possible late tonight through Monday with wind gusts to 50 mph. The strongest winds will remain east and northeast of this area. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.

Main Pass/Viosca Knoll to Mobile Leases – Heavy squalls and winds of up to 50 mph will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts may reach up to 70 mph in squalls to the east of the track. The last full day of good flying weather will be today.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rain bands capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected today through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.

Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida. Widespread power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / George Harvey

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.