Key Points

1. There has been a significant change to the track forecast. Alberto is now forecast to move inland near Apalachicola in about 24 hours.
2. With the track change, the chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane has decreased to 10 percent
3. With Alberto moving faster than previously forecast, we have decreased the expected rainfall totals over the southeast United States. There is still a region that extends from the Florida Panhandle through Alabama that will receive moderate rain impacts, however.

Our Forecast
Alberto has again accelerated to the north-northeast during the overnight hours. The surface center appears to be a bit to the south of a well-defined mid level center. That said, there is a chance for the centers to become aligned during the day. This, along with the latest model guidance, which has shifted dramatically to the north and east overnight, is the reason for the major track change. Alberto is now expected to move fairly quickly to the north throughout the day today. We still expect the north-northwest bend to occur, but not until Alberto is nearly onshore. The changes to the forecast track mean that landfall is now forecast to occur in about 24 hours around Apalachicola instead of tomorrow afternoon near Pensacola. It should be stated that if the northwest turn occurs a little sooner than forecast, landfall could occur farther west, perhaps near Ft. Walton. The angle of the coastline and the direction in which the storm is approaching is why there is a wide range of landfall possibilities. After landfall, we expect that Alberto will move north-northwest into Alabama and then turn back to the north, taking the remnants through Tennessee.

Alberto appears better organized this morning. However, as stated, the surface center is south of the mid level center. Once these become aligned later today, intensification will occur. The forecast is still for winds to reach 60 mph at landfall. However, the fact that there will be about 12 hours less over water means that the chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane has decreased from 25 percent to 10 percent.

With Alberto moving a bit faster than we were previously forecasting, we have lowered the peak rainfall amounts. In addition, the area that is expected to receive the greatest impacts from rain has been shifted to the east.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – There is now only a very slight risk of tropical storm conditions in this area.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Heavy rainfall is expected to occur for much of the day. This will likely lead to periods of street flooding, resulting in travel delays. Winds may briefly reach tropical storm force around Tampa Bay, causing power outages.

Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Widespread power outages are expected near where Alberto makes landfall. Major travel delays are expected for the area that receives the heaviest rains.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / George Harvey

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.