Current Location: 19.7N, 86.4W
Geographic Reference: 50 miles SE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 5 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles
Organizational Trend: Has become slightly less-organized over the past 3-4 hours
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points

1. The fact that Disturbance 3 was upgraded to Subtropical Storm Alberto does not change our forecast track or predicted intensity.
2. There is a significant flood risk to the central Gulf Coast early next week due to the predicted slower movement near landfall.
3. Little impact is expected from west of New Orleans to Texas.

Our Forecast
Although there were a few observations of winds to 40 mph about 115 miles northeast of the poorly-defined center a few hours ago, those squalls have since weakened. It is doubtful that Alberto still has any tropical storm-force wind this afternoon. Squalls will flare up and die down occasionally over the next 24-36 hours, sometimes producing tropical storm-force winds northeast of the center. Alberto will likely struggle with wind shear until Sunday morning, when it will be making a turn to the northwest. That’s when we expect strengthening to occur.

We have not made any significant adjustments to Alberto’s track in this advisory. By Sunday morning, Alberto is predicted to take a turn to the northwest and head toward the northern Gulf Coast near the Mississippi/Alabama border. Landfall is projected for late Monday afternoon. Peak winds prior to landfall may reach 60 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Alberto will steadily weaken after landfall, becoming a remnant low pressure area in east-central Mississippi by Tuesday afternoon.

Because of the slow movement near landfall, there is a risk of very heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast from southeastern Mississippi east to the central Florida Panhandle and inland for about 100 miles. The heaviest rain is expected from Monday morning through noon on Tuesday. Our forecast is taking the weakening storm northward more quickly than we were thinking yesterday, so the threat of widespread flooding has decreased somewhat.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon to Lund Canyon – Squalls are possible late Saturday night through Monday with wind gusts to 50 mph. The strongest winds will remain east and northeast of this area. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.

Main Pass/Viosca Knoll to Mobile Leases – Heavy squalls and winds of up to 50 mph will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts may reach up to 70 mph in squalls to the east of the track. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rain bands capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty wind are expected on Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.

Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9PM CDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.