Current Location: 20.0N, 87.7W
Geographic Reference: Over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: Relatively Stationary
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 12 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
- There is a 90 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Sunday.
- We have decreased the predicted forward speed resulting in a later landfall time and potentially a higher flood risk.
- The system is still expected to be highly sheared with the heaviest squalls and highest winds being east of the center.
- Little impact is expected from west of New Orleans to Texas.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 remains disorganized while being relatively stationary over the Yucatan Peninsula. The system is expected to become better organized over the next few days as it generally tracks to the north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression over the weekend and could be a tropical storm as early as Saturday night or Sunday morning. It will be a slow moving system. Therefore, our primary concern is heavy rainfall.
Outer rainbands from the system could impact the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as early as Sunday afternoon. By the time the system reaches the Gulf Coast near Mississippi and Alabama, it is expected to be a tropical storm with winds near 50 mph in the heaviest squalls. Though some impacts from wind are a concern, it is the heavy rainfall within the rainbands that is of most concern. The best chance of heavy rainfall from the panhandle of Florida to southern Alabama and southern Mississippi is on Monday and Tuesday. If the system tracks slow enough, rainfall could linger into Wednesday. The heaviest squalls are expected to be east of Louisiana. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding will be possible in southeast Louisiana, especially on Monday and Tuesday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 89W) – Widespread squalls Friday to Monday with wind gusts to 60 mph to 65 mph in the strongest squalls will be possible, along with rough seas.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rainbands capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather are expected on Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce isolated power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Cameron Self
| Forecast Confidence: Below Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Thu May 24 | 20.00N | 87.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Fri May 25 | 21.00N | 87.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Fri May 25 | 21.90N | 86.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Sat May 26 | 23.30N | 86.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Sat May 26 | 24.90N | 86.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Sun May 27 | 26.70N | 87.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.10N | 87.60W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.30N | 88.10W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.30N | 88.40W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 108 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 30.80N | 88.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 3PM CDT Tue May 29 | 31.60N | 89.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 132 | 3AM CDT Wed May 30 | 32.80N | 89.50W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
