Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 3 remains disorganized to the north of Honduras along 84.5W. The disturbance has been moving slowly to the west-northwest during the past 24 hours. A turn more to the north is expected during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, there are two possible paths that the system could take. The most likely path is one across the Florida Peninsula. This is because there is expected to be a strong upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This should steer the system to the northeast. Some of the models, however, are insisting on a path more to the northwest, into the Gulf of Mexico. This is considered the less likely solution at this time.

The upper trough is expected to cause strong wind shear over the disturbance. Therefore, despite most of the model guidance indicating development, we only assess the chance of development to be about 1 in 3, or roughly 35 percent. If the system were to develop, it would likely be no more intense than a minimal tropical storm. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms are expected for the Florida Peninsula and the southeast United States. late this week and into Memorial Day weekend.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt