Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 3 has been relocated a little to the north. It is now about 85 miles east of the Nicaragua / Honduras Border. It has been moving to the northwest near 5 mph during the past 24 hours. We expect a slow motion into the northwest Caribbean during the next couple of days. As we approach Memorial Day Weekend, there is an increasing chance that the disturbance will move into the Gulf of Mexico. We now favor a track into the eastern Gulf instead of one over the Florida Peninsula.

Environmental conditions are expected to be marginal at best for tropical or subtropical development. Moderate to strong wind shear is expected over the Gulf of Mexico. However, some of the models are trending stronger. While confidence is high that some type of low pressure system will form, there is only a 30 percent chance that it will be organized enough to warrant a tropical or subtropical classification. Regardless of the classification, the impacts will be the same. Heavy rains are expected for the Florida Peninsula as well as the southeast United States for the Memorial Day Weekend. Isolated severe storms are also possible.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt