10
Jul
Attached is the latest update from the NWS/NOAA.
This update provides more information regarding rainfall and storm-force wind coverage.
Situation Overview
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory initiated at 10 AM Wednesday.
- Tropical Storm Watch Mouth of MS River to Morgan City.
- Storm Surge Watch Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.
- Atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures favor strengthening and tropical system expected to develop into hurricane late Friday into the weekend before reaching the coast.
TS Wind Speed Probabilities
- Low Pressure is expected to move southwest and develop into a Tropical Storm on Thursday
- Tropical system is expected to turn north west Friday and Saturday and approach the coast as a hurricane.
- Tropical Storm Force Winds could begin as early as late Thursday into early Friday.
Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities
- Highest Hurricane Wind Probabilities are currently along the coast west of the Mississippi River.
- However, this will be highly dependent on adjustments to track.
Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival
- Earliest reasonable time of Tropical storm force winds – late Thursday into early Friday.
- Most likely time of tropical storm wind would be Friday.
Storm Surge Watch
- Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mouth of Pearl River to Morgan City.
- Expect storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level in the Watch area.
- Storm Surge Flooding of 1 to 3 in Lakes Pontchartrain /Maurespas and MS Coast.
MS River Forecast
Mississippi River
- Storm surge near Mouth of Mississippi River of up to 3-5 ft late Friday or early Saturday.
- Potential storm surge of around 3-4 ft expected along the lower Mississippi River from New Orleans area southward
- New Orleans Carrollton Gage Forecast – Approximately 20 ft late Friday into Saturday.
Expected Storm Total Rainfall
- Widespread rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches.
- Some areas may receive near 18 inches.
- Greatest threat of heavy rainfall will be from Friday through Sunday.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook
- Although only Slight Risk of heavy rainfall on Friday – this may increase with time as confidence grows in forecast track.
Tornado Potential
- Marginal risk of severe weather on Thursday and Friday.
- Severe weather risk increases on Friday as system becomes better organized.
- Isolated tornadoes main threat.
- Severe Weather risk will continue into Saturday.