Current Location: 19.7N, 94.9W
Geographic Reference: 255 miles SE of Tampico, MX
Movement: West-northwest at 10 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 60 percent
Key Points
1. Regardless of development, the greatest threat to Mexico is flooding rainfall.
2. We are now forecasting the disturbance to move into Mexico on Monday afternoon.
2. Strong wind shear will keep the threat very low for Texas. The only impact is expected to be enhanced moisture.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 is moving a bit faster to the west-northwest than we were previously forecasting. A west-northwest to a northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland, which is now forecast to occur between Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico Monday afternoon. Thereafter, the remnants of the system could move toward southern Texas.
There has been little change in terms of organization with Disturbance 3 this evening. While the broad low level circulation has become better defined, there are only a few squalls in association with the disturbance. We expect that squalls will redevelop during the overnight hours. This is likely to allow for the system to become at least a tropical depression before it moves inland, if not a minimal tropical storm. After moving inland, rapid weakening is expected. In the unlikely event that the system were to remain offshore and move toward Texas, strong wind shear would likely cause the system to dissipate before making landfall.
Since the system is not forecast to be any more than a minimal tropical storm, the greatest threat will be flooding rainfall. This threat will occur regardless as to whether or not the system develops into a depression or a tropical storm. Some of the rainfall could move toward Texas later in the week.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Northeast Mexico – Tampico Area: Isolated power outages could occur due to gusty winds. Widespread street flooding is expected. Some flood damage may occur, especially in areas that experience mudslides.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche to Offshore Tampico, MX: Scattered squalls with locally rough seas and wind gusts to 45 mph.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Sat Jun 01 | 19.70N | 94.90W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Sun Jun 02 | 20.00N | 95.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Sun Jun 02 | 20.40N | 96.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Mon Jun 03 | 21.00N | 97.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Mon Jun 03 | 22.00N | 98.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Tue Jun 04 | 23.00N | 98.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five years. Over the past five tropical cyclone seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, strong winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
