Active Systems
None
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 42 has formed about 240 miles south of eastern Long Island. This is a nontropical area of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of Florence. It is expected to move in a looping motion, first to the east, then the south, with a turn to the west and then back north. It is expected to remain east of the United States. The model guidance indicates that if there is any development, it will be limited in nature. The chance of tropical development is 10 percent.
Disturbance 41 has formed in the central Atlantic along 43W. It is moving to the west-northwest near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continue. It could approach the Leeward Islands in about 5 to 6 days. There is a large area of squalls associated with this disturbance. However, environmental conditions are marginal for further development. There is a 20 percent chance of tropical development. If development were to occur, it would likely do so before the weekend as conditions will become less favorable for development then. Thus, we do not expect to see a strong system moving into the Caribbean.
We are monitoring the hatched area on the map west of the Azores. Model guidance indicates that a nontropical area of low pressure will form here by the weekend. There is a 40 percent chance of subtropical or tropical development. Any system that forms is likely to meander over the open Atlantic.
Disturbance 40 is a small area of low pressure located about 100 miles northeast of Bermuda. it is moving to the north-northeast near 15 mph. This motion should continue, keeping it away from land areas. While there is a well-defined surface circulation, there are few squalls associated with this disturbance. There is a 5 percent chance of tropical development.
The remnants of Isaac persist in the northwest Caribbean. While this system will move toward the Gulf and bring enhanced storminess to the western Gulf late this week, there is a near zero percent chance of tropical development.
Disturbance 39 is located along 64W, in the eastern Caribbean. It is moving to the west near 25 mph. There are no signs of organization. No development is expected.
Joyce weakened to a remnant low south of the Azores. Redevelopment is not expected.
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
