Current Location: 22.7N, 76.7W
Geographic Reference: 300 miles southeast of Miami, Florida
Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 60 percent
Key Points
1. The chance of development has been raised from 50 percent to 60 percent.
2. The system is expected to move toward the north-central or northwest Gulf coast next Tuesday or Wednesday.
3. Regardless of tropical development, the disturbance is likely to bring heavy rainfall to the north central and northwest Gulf coastal areas.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 30 is moving slowly through the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is expected to increase its forward speed later today as it moves toward the Florida Keys and or South Florida. Afterward, it should move into the Gulf. The disturbance will track into the north-central Gulf Tuesday before making landfall on southeast Louisiana late Tuesday or early Wednesday. This is in agreement with the American and European models. After making landfall, the disturbance is forecast to slow down its forward speed and track to the west-northwest, or possibly west, according to the European and Canadian models. The American model still forecasts a motion to the north. However, a ridge of high pressure to the north of the system will likely keep the system from moving northward after moving into Louisiana.
There continues to be a very slow increase in organization of the disturbance this morning despite the strong wind shear. The latest model guidance has remained mostly unchanged on the development of the disturbance. Wind shear is forecast to decrease some over the disturbance for Monday through Wednesday which will allow for slow development. The chance of development was raised from 50 percent to 60 percent. If development were to occur, we do not believe the system will intensify beyond a moderate tropical storm. After landfall, weakening is expected.
Regardless as to whether or not development occurs, the system will bring increased moisture to the north central and northwest Gulf coastal areas. Thus, heavy rains are possible for the middle and latter parts of next week.
Expected Impacts on Land
Eastern Texas through Southern Mississippi: At a minimum, locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Increased squalls will likely move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By very early Tuesday morning, the squalls should move into the lease areas off of southeast Louisiana. Gusts could reach up to 50 mph within any squalls.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Claude Aultman
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Sun Sep 02 | 22.70N | 76.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Sun Sep 02 | 23.60N | 79.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 24.50N | 81.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 25.90N | 83.90W | 35 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 27.10N | 86.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.20N | 88.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 29.40N | 90.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 84 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.20N | 91.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 30.80N | 92.10W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 31.20N | 93.30W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 31.60N | 94.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 132 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 32.00N | 95.60W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
