Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 continues its west-northwest motion across the western Gulf of Mexico. The system exhibits disorganized, yet at times heavy, shower and thunderstorm activity. There is a slight (20 percent) chance of weak tropical development before it moves into the Texas Coast later today. Though atmospheric conditions are somewhat favorable for development today, the window of opportunity for this system to develop is very small. Therefore, the odds continue to be against development. It is worth mentioning that the expected impacts will not change even in the event that the system manages to develop.

Despite moving inland later today, the slow moving system will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the far western Gulf of Mexico and over coastal/southern Texas and northeast Mexico through at least the middle of the week. In the strongest thunderstorms, we cannot rule out wind gusts up to 50 kts (60 mph) for offshore areas. Our primary concern from this system is locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, particularly over southern and coastal Texas along with northeast Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will also impact portions of coastal Louisiana today and tomorrow.

We will be carefully monitoring the shower and thunderstorm activity that is expected to persist over the far western Gulf of Mexico through much of this week. At this time, we think most of the unsettled weather will be over land which limits the development potential.

Disturbance 7 is along 56W. It remains weak and is not expected to develop. A westward motion is expected to continue. The disturbance will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles on Monday.

Meteorologist: Cameron Self / Claude Aultman