The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released the update below to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the quoted text below along with the attachment to update historic low water readings and updated river stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“We do not have any significant changes to report from the issuance on Monday. Our official forecast with 48 hour forecasted rainfall and longer range outlook with 16-days of future forecast rainfall are still not picking up on any significant additional rainfall over the next two weeks that will slow recessions. Forecast stage minimums in the extended 3-4 week timeframe are similar to Mondays issuance minor adjustments.
Our extended forecasts are starting to reflect low stages that could be impactful and wanted to start sharing our extended range forecasts with comparisons to the previous years of low flow for reference.
The Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the 8-14 day, one month and three month outlooks are calling for Normal to Below Normal conditions over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi. ” (Emphasis supplied)
The supporting information below was prepared by the Big River Coalition:
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1200 hours today was 3.73 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.25 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will continue a slow fall to 2.0 feet on September 26 (2024).
Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
The predictive map below is the forecast for the 168-hour (7 Days) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF).
“Forecasters at the WPC and its predecessor organizations have been making Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts since 1960. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, or QPFs, depict the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall in a defined period of time. In the case of snow or ice, QPF represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted. Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, and for this reason QPFs issued by the WPC are defined as the expected “areal average” (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches.”
