A forecast update provided today by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is attached. The predicted crest at New Orleans (Carrollton Gage) is 12.7 feet on March 20, 2022 before beginning a steady fall to 9.4 feet on April 5, 2022.
The following details are reproduced from the attached report:
“Heavy rain Sunday night caused minor rises on the lower Ohio River and the Mississippi River above Cairo, IL. The rainfall has prolong the flooding on the lower Ohio River and the crests on the lower Mississippi River have been stretched out a few days longer and raised a few more tenths.
During the next 5 days, one half to one inch of rainfall is forecast over the middle and upper portions of the Ohio Valley. The rainfall will only slow down recessions on the lower Ohio River and prolong elevated water levels. Minor to moderate flooding will continue on the lower Ohio River for a couple of more weeks.
Rainfall over the next 5 days may cause renewed isolated minor flooding on the smaller tributaries in Mississippi, north Alabama, and Tennessee.
On the lower Mississippi River, slight rises are occurring at New Madrid, MO and it should crest tomorrow evening. Minor flooding will continue from New Madrid, MO to Osceola, AR, at Mhoon Landing, MS and Red River Landing, LA.
The lower Mississippi at New Orleans, LA is not expected to crest until mid March.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance continues to show slower recessions on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers. The guidance shows the lower Ohio River remaining in flood through most of March.”