A forecast update provided by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is attached. This update was released as crests have occurred along the Ohio River and stages are slowly receding. 

The predicted crest at New Orleans (Carrollton Gage) is 12.3 feet on March 13, 2022 followed by a slow fall.   

The following details are reproduced from the attached report:

The lower Ohio River has crested at all locations and slow falls will continue through the weekend. 

During the next 5 days, one to three inches of rainfall is forecast over the Ohio River.  The rainfall is expected to slow down recessions on the lower Ohio River and prolong elevated water levels.  Minor to moderate flooding will continue on the lower Ohio River for several more weeks. 

Rainfall over the next 5 days may cause renewed minor to moderate flooding on the smaller tributaries in Missouri, north Arkansas, and Tennessee.  

On the lower Mississippi River, New Madrid, MO is near crest now.  Cresting conditions will approach Memphis, TN by early next week.  Minor flooding will continue from New Madrid, MO to Osceola, AR.  Minor flooding is also expected at Mhoon Landing, MS and Red River Landing, LA.

The lower Mississippi at New Orleans, LA is not expected to crest until mid March. 

The 16 day future rainfall guidance continues to show slower recessions on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers.  The guidance shows the lower Ohio River remaining in flood through the month of March.”