A forecast update provided by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is attached. This update was released in response to the first significant rise of the year for the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, cresting conditions at the conjunction of the two rivers at Cairo, IL of 45.5 feet are expected on March 5, 2022.   Recent rain events across the Mississippi River Basin have extended the cresting conditions by a few days. 

“Over the next 7 days, little rainfall is forecast over the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Minor to moderate flooding will continue on the smaller tributaries in Arkansas, Tennessee, north Alabama, and Mississippi over the next several days. The lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL is forecast to crest at 45.5 ft on March 5th.  Minor to moderate flooding is expected on the lower Ohio River over the next couple of weeks. The crest levels on the lower Ohio River will be similar to levels reached in March of 2021. As the crest moves downstream, minor flooding may be possible on the lower Mississippi River between New Madrid, MO and Osceola, AR.  Cresting conditions are not expected to reach New Orleans, LA until mid March. The 16 day future rainfall guidance shows the same crests on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers.  The guidance does shows minor flooding continuing a week longer on the lower Ohio River.”

Please see the attachment for complete details.