Current Location: 26.9N, 86.5W
Geographic Reference: 235 miles south of Panama City, FL
Movement: North at 12 mph
Max Winds: 125 mph gusting to 150 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 13 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 26 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 16 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 185 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 255 miles
Organizational Trend: Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Michael is now forecast to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph.
2. Weather conditions will start to deteriorate over the Florida Panhandle during the overnight hours.
3. Catastrophic damage is expected near where the center makes landfall.
4. Strong winds and heavy rains will spread inland into Georgia and the Carolinas.
Our Forecast
Michael continues moving to the north. This motion should continue for the next few hours before it makes its north-northeast turn. The forecast continues to be for Michael to make landfall around Panama City tomorrow afternoon. After landfall, Michael is forecast to accelerate to the northeast, which will take the storm through Georgia and the Carolinas, before moving off of the East Coast of the United States. Once offshore, Michael is forecast to accelerate to the east-northeast, which will keep it south of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Michael has continued to intensify. Based upon the latest aircraft data, winds are now 125 mph. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development. The eye is also becoming better defined. In addition, the model guidance indicates additional intensification. The new forecast is for Michael to become a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow morning. Unlike most north Gulf hurricanes, it is unlikely that Michael will weaken before it makes landfall. The forecast is for Michael to have winds of 140 mph at landfall tomorrow afternoon around Panama City. Michael is forecast to be significantly more intense than Hurricanes Opal, Ivan, and Dennis, all of which affected the Florida Panhandle in recent years.
Weather conditions are expected to start deteriorating overnight as the outer rainbands begin to rotate onshore. Hurricane force winds may arrive as soon as late tomorrow morning, with destructive conditions expected in the early afternoon hours.
Once inland, Michael will weaken to a tropical storm as it tracks across Georgia. However, hurricane force winds could spread as far inland as Albany, Georgia. Michael is forecast to remain as a tropical storm as it tracks across the Carolinas. When it moves off of the East Coast, it is expected to intensify as it passes south of New England and Atlantic Canada. However, it will be transitioning into an extratropical storm at this time.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Tropical storm conditions are possible across eastern parts of these lease areas tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expected Impacts Inland
Florida Panhandle / Extreme Southeast Alabama / SW Georgia: Catastrophic damage due to wind and tidal surge is expected near where the center tracks. This includes well-built structures. Widespread power outages are expected. These power outages could last for an extended period of time. Flooding rains are also likely.
Georgia and the Carolinas: Inland flooding will be possible, including for some of the areas that were flooded in Florence. Power outages due to wind are also possible.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 AM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / David Piech
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 26.90N | 86.50W | 125 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 29.00N | 86.20W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| 18 | 3PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 30.30N | 85.80W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 31.20N | 85.00W | 100 mph | 120 mph | Category 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| 30 | 3AM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 32.00N | 83.90W | 75 mph | 90 mph | Category 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 32.70N | 82.70W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 42 | 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 33.80N | 80.80W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 34.90N | 78.90W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 37.30N | 73.10W | 65 mph | 75 mph | Extratropical Storm | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 66 | 3PM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 39.20N | 68.80W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 41.00N | 64.50W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 78 | 3AM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 42.50N | 58.80W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 84 | 9AM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 44.00N | 53.00W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
