Current Location: 24.6N, 86.2W
Geographic Reference: 380 miles south of Panama City, FL
Movement: North at 14 mph
Max Winds: 105 mph gusting to 125 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 18 out of a possible 50 points (9 size, 9 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 13 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 165 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 270 miles
Organizational Trend: Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. There are no significant changes in this advisory.
2. We are forecasting landfall to occur early Wednesday afternoon near Panama City, Florida with winds of 110 mph to 120 mph.
3. There is the potential for additional flooding in the Carolinas.
Our Forecast
There are no significant changes in this advisory. A reconnaissance plane inside the storm has found a dropping pressure and increasing winds. Satellite imagery indicates that the eye is beginning to clear out. We think that Michael will strengthen to a category 3 hurricane this afternoon. Winds may peak around 125 mph tonight, though we do expect that Michael will weaken a little prior to landfall. Our forecast takes the center of Michael inland into the Panama City area early tomorrow afternoon as a category 3 hurricane with max sustained winds near 120 mph.
Once inland, Michael’s winds will drop below hurricane strength as it tracks across southwestern Georgia Wednesday evening. However, Michael will maintain tropical storm-force winds as it tracks across the Carolinas on Thursday. Michael’s rapid forward speed as it tracks through the Carolinas will limit its capacity to produce heavy rain, but we are still expecting several inches of rain to fall there on Thursday. Once Michael emerges off the East U.S. Coast early Friday morning, it should begin a transition to a larger extratropical storm. Tropical storm-force winds may extend as far north as the southern coast of New Jersey.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Squalls are forecast to reach the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast during the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible across eastern parts of these lease areas tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expected Impacts Inland
Florida Panhandle / Extreme Southeast Alabama / SW Georgia: Severe damage due to wind and tidal surge is expected near where the center tracks. This includes well-built structures. Widespread power outages are expected. These power outages could last for an extended period of time. Flooding rains are also likely.
Georgia and the Carolinas: Inland flooding will be possible, including for some of the areas that were flooded in Florence. Power outages due to wind are also possible.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 PM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 24.60N | 86.20W | 105 mph | 125 mph | Category 2 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 27.10N | 86.50W | 120 mph | 145 mph | Category 3 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 29.20N | 86.00W | 125 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| 28 | 1PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 30.00N | 85.50W | 120 mph | 145 mph | Category 3 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 31.50N | 84.30W | 80 mph | 100 mph | Category 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 33.80N | 81.50W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 36.20N | 77.10W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 38.90N | 70.80W | 65 mph | 75 mph | Extratropical Storm | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Fri Oct 12 | 42.00N | 62.00W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Sat Oct 13 | 45.40N | 51.90W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Extratropical Storm | 6 | 3 | 9 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
