Active Systems

Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie is about 585 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 60 mph. A general southeast track is expected over the next 4-5 days. The system could regain hurricane strength later next week. It may impact the Azores in about a week. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

47
Disturbance 47 is slowly becoming better organized in the western Caribbean. The system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm as it moves north into the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Our latest forecast brings the system ashore near the Mobile and Pensacola areas late Wednesday or early Thursday as a 60 mph tropical storm.

We think that most of the heavy squalls, high seas, and potential for tropical storm force winds will be near and to the east of the center of circulation. The system will likely enhance squalls on Tuesday-Thursday for the lease blocks of the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 49 has been recognized along 48W. It is moving west near 10 mph. It may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. At this time, the system is expected to remain weak as it tracks westward across the Caribbean. However, the western Caribbean tends to be a favored zone for development in the month of October. Therefore, we are giving this system a slight (10 percent) chance of development.

Disturbance 48 is a weak tropical wave located along 35W longitude. The disturbance is moving westward at 10 mph. We think that development chances are less than 10 percent. It may dissipate before being able to reach the Caribbean.

Meteorologists: Cameron Self / Nicholas Kosar