Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #25

Current Location: 13.7N, 63.6W
Geographic Reference: 170 miles west of St. Lucia
Movement: West-northwest at 14 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Decreasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk has wobbled to the southwest.
2. The heaviest rains will continue across Grenada through St. Lucia over the next several hours.
3. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.

Our Forecast
Kirk has resumed a track to the west-northwest. This motion should continue until Kirk dissipates in the central Caribbean this weekend. Kirk remains a highly sheared system. The circulation center of Kirk is becoming more exposed on satellite imagery as wind shear is increasing over the system. Aircraft data is reporting higher pressure this morning with the tropical storm. Steady weakening is expected due to the strong wind shear. Our forecast is for Kirk to weaken to a remnant low by tomorrow morning. The heaviest squalls will affect Grenada through St. Lucia through this afternoon before conditions gradually improve this evening.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Some flooding and mudslides may occur through this afternoon. Power outages are also possible in any heavy squalls.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity today and tomorrow. However, the threat of squalls directly associated with Kirk continues to decrease.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 13.70N 63.60W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
12 9PM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.20N 66.20W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 9AM CDT Sat Sep 29 14.80N 68.60W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
36 9PM CDT Sat Sep 29 15.40N 71.00W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.