Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #18

Current Location: 12.5N, 55.2W
Geographic Reference: 285 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 70 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk is predicted to pass north of St. Lucia as a weak tropical storm tomorrow afternoon then dissipate in the east Caribbean Friday.
2. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.

Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane has been investigating Kirk over the past several hours. The plane has found a small pocket of winds as high as 60 mph to the northeast of the center, but average winds are much lower, closer to 40 mph. With the exception of the stronger initial intensity, the general thinking about Kirk’s future has not changed. Kirk will be encountering increasingly-strong wind shear over the next 12 hours, which should lead to weakening prior to the center passing near St. Lucia in about 24 hours. In fact, we can see some evidence that the wind shear is increasing across Kirk just in the past hour. Kirk should weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses into the eastern Caribbean tomorrow evening and to a remnant low in the eastern Caribbean on Friday.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Puerto Rico: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.50N 55.20W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
12 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.40N 58.20W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
24 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.20N 60.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 15.30N 63.80W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 15.90N 66.80W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.