Current Location: 12.5N, 55.2W
Geographic Reference: 285 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 70 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk is predicted to pass north of St. Lucia as a weak tropical storm tomorrow afternoon then dissipate in the east Caribbean Friday.
2. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.
Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane has been investigating Kirk over the past several hours. The plane has found a small pocket of winds as high as 60 mph to the northeast of the center, but average winds are much lower, closer to 40 mph. With the exception of the stronger initial intensity, the general thinking about Kirk’s future has not changed. Kirk will be encountering increasingly-strong wind shear over the next 12 hours, which should lead to weakening prior to the center passing near St. Lucia in about 24 hours. In fact, we can see some evidence that the wind shear is increasing across Kirk just in the past hour. Kirk should weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses into the eastern Caribbean tomorrow evening and to a remnant low in the eastern Caribbean on Friday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.
Puerto Rico: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.50N | 55.20W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.40N | 58.20W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 14.20N | 60.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.30N | 63.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.90N | 66.80W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
