Current Location: 12.1N, 53.9W
Geographic Reference: 375 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may weaken to a depression as it reaches the Windward Islands on Thursday.
2. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.
Our Forecast
Tropical Storm Kirk continues moving steadily westward toward the eastern Caribbean this morning. An overnight wind satellite pass did find a closed circulation with winds to 45 mph to the northeast of the center. As Kirk passes north of Barbados on Thursday morning, it will be encountering increasingly strong westerly wind shear, which should lead to steady weakening to a tropical depression as it passes north of St. Lucia on Thursday evening. Even stronger wind shear in the eastern Caribbean should lead to the dissipation of Kirk on Friday. The primary threat to the central Lesser Antilles will be from potentially heavy rainfall as Kirk passes on Thursday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.
Puerto Rico: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity for Puerto Rico on Friday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.10N | 53.90W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.90N | 56.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.80N | 59.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 14.50N | 61.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.10N | 63.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.50N | 66.20W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
