Remnants of Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #13

Current Location: 10.9N, 47.6W
Geographic Reference: 810 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West at 21 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Redevelopment: 70 percent

Key Points
1. Kirk remains well organized.
2. Regardless of classification, gusty winds and locally heavy rains are expected for the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern or central Caribbean on Friday.

Our Forecast
Kirk remains well organized this morning. However, it is not clear if there is a closed surface circulation. Our forecast is for Kirk to regain tropical storm status this evening. However, it should begin to lose organization as it approaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean due to increased wind shear. Once in the Caribbean, Kirk is forecast to once again become a remnant area of low pressure.

Kirk is moving a bit faster than we previously were forecasting. Our latest forecast is for Kirk to move near Barbados early Thursday morning. It is then forecast to move near St. Lucia late Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon.

Even if Kirk does not become a tropical storm once again, gusty winds and locally heavy rains will occur for the Windward Islands.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Tue Sep 25 10.90N 47.60W 40 mph 50 mph Remnant Low 1 1 2
12 9PM CDT Tue Sep 25 11.50N 51.30W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.00N 54.50W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 9PM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.70N 57.50W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.40N 60.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
60 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.00N 62.50W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
72 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.70N 66.00W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.