Remnants of Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #12

Current Location: 10.5N, 45.8W
Geographic Reference: 945 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West at 19 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Redevelopment: 70 percent

Key Points
1. Kirk continues to show signs of potential development.
2. There is uncertainty regarding how organized Kirk will be when it tracks through the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern or central Caribbean by Friday or Saturday.

Our Forecast
The center of Kirk is expected to move a little to the north of Barbados Thursday afternoon. It should move through the remainder of the Windward Islands on Thursday evening. The west-northwest motion should continue as Kirk moves into the Caribbean.

Kirk is expected to approach the islands as a tropical storm. There is some uncertainty regarding how organized the system will be when it reaches the islands. It may lose its low level circulation thus losing its tropical storm status. Regardless of the scenario, heavy thunderstorms capable of producing tropical storm force winds will be possible on Thursday.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 AM AST / 9 AM CDT

Meteorologist: Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 4AM CDT Tue Sep 25 10.50N 45.80W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
12 4PM CDT Tue Sep 25 11.10N 49.10W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 4AM CDT Wed Sep 26 11.70N 52.30W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 4PM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.40N 55.10W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 4AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.10N 57.50W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
60 4PM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.70N 60.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
72 4AM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.10N 62.50W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
84 4PM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.30N 65.10W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.