Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #6
 

Current Location: 9.4N, 32.7W
Geographic Reference: 655 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 24 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm Thursday morning.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate north of Venezuela next Saturday.

Our Forecast
Kirk is beginning to be affected by some wind shear and dry air. However, the sustained winds remain near 40 mph. The winds are expected to decrease soon and Kirk could be downgraded to a depression later today or tonight. When Kirk begins slowing down in a day or two, it could regain tropical storm strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. There is also a chance it will not regain tropical storm strength at all. Increasing wind shear across the eastern Caribbean will likely lead to weakening and dissipation north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Sun Sep 23 9.40N 32.70W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
12 3AM CDT Mon Sep 24 9.60N 37.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 3PM CDT Mon Sep 24 9.90N 41.40W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 3AM CDT Tue Sep 25 10.30N 45.60W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 3PM CDT Tue Sep 25 10.70N 49.40W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
72 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 11.50N 56.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
96 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 12.60N 61.30W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
108 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 13.00N 63.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
120 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 13.40N 66.30W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
144 3PM CDT Sat Sep 29 14.10N 71.20W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.