Current Location: 9.1N, 28.3W
Geographic Reference: 480 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 23 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm Thursday morning.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate north of Venezuela next Saturday.
Our Forecast
Kirk has not shown any signs of strengthening over the past several hours. The system will barely hang on to its tropical storm status over the next 24 hours. Some mid-level dry air entrainment and an acceleration in its forward speed will likely weaken Kirk to a tropical depression by Monday morning. When Kirk begins slowing down Tuesday night into Wednesday, it could regain tropical storm strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. However, increasing wind shear across the eastern Caribbean will likely lead to weakening and dissipation north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday. There is currently no model support for Kirk reaching the Gulf of Mexico or the southeast U.S. Coast.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 AM AST / 9 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Claude Aultman
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.10N | 28.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.30N | 32.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.50N | 37.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.80N | 41.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.30N | 45.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 10.90N | 53.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.00N | 58.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.50N | 61.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.00N | 63.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 144 | 3AM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 13.80N | 68.90W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
