Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #2
 

Current Location: 8.4N, 24.5W
Geographic Reference: 445 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 15 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – Weakening Slightly Since Yesterday
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm next Thursday.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday.

Our Forecast
We have not made any changes to the forecast since the previous update. Our forecast indicates that Kirk may weaken to a depression by tomorrow morning. When Kirk begins slowing down on Wednesday, it could regain tropical storm strength as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles. However, increasing wind shear across the eastern Caribbean will likely lead to weakening and dissipation north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday. There is currently no model support for Kirk reaching the Gulf of Mexico or the southeast U.S. Coast.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 4PM CDT Sat Sep 22 8.40N 24.50W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
12 4AM CDT Sun Sep 23 8.90N 29.30W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 4PM CDT Sun Sep 23 9.10N 33.40W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
36 4AM CDT Mon Sep 24 9.30N 37.70W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 4PM CDT Mon Sep 24 9.50N 41.90W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
72 4PM CDT Tue Sep 25 10.20N 49.70W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
96 4PM CDT Wed Sep 26 11.20N 55.90W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
120 4PM CDT Thu Sep 27 12.70N 61.60W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
144 4PM CDT Fri Sep 28 13.30N 68.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
168 4PM CDT Sat Sep 29 13.50N 74.20W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.