Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 41 is located near 11.5N / 49W, or about 800 miles east of Trinidad. Visible satellite imagery today indicates that the disturbance may be close to becoming a tropical depression. There is a 40 percent chance that the disturbance will be briefly classified as a tropical depression prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean this weekend. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a depression, it may produce increased showers and thunderstorms across the islands of the eastern Caribbean over the weekend.

Disturbance 42 is a non-tropical low located near Bermuda. While computer models had indicated some potential for tropical development over the past few days, development chances appear to be low, perhaps 10 percent.

Models continue to indicate that a low pressure center will develop northeast of Disturbance 42 along the frontal boundary next week. We think that there is a 50 percent chance that a subtropical or tropical storm could develop west of the Azores next week. If development should occur, then the system would most likely track northward and out to sea.

Disturbance 39 is located in the central Caribbean along 73W. The disturbance is moving to the west near 20 mph. There has been an increase in squalls this morning. However, there are no signs of organization. Tropical development is not expected.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Jim Palmer