Current Location: 24.5N, 94W
Geographic Reference: 230 miles ESE of Brownsville Texas
Movement: West-northwest at 10 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Remains Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 40 percent
Key Points
1. Disturbance 37 will not likely develop before moving inland into Texas tomorrow.
2. Whether or not the disturbance develops, it will produce gusty winds, heavy squalls, and rough seas across portions of the northwest Gulf lease areas through Saturday morning.
3. Locally heavy rain is likely for the mid to upper Texas coast from this afternoon through Saturday.
Our Forecast
Satellite imagery and surface observations overnight indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized. With little or no model support for development, we think that the disturbance will most likely move inland into the Texas coast tomorrow without developing any further. Since the disturbance lacks a central low pressure system, do not focus on the point of landfall as the location for the heaviest rain or stronger wind. Squalls will move inland all along the Texas coast tomorrow and Saturday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Texas: Squalls moving into the northwest Gulf this morning will move into the coast by late this afternoon. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in heavier squalls, along with locally rough seas.
Expected Impacts Inland
Texas Coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening through Saturday. Some travel delays are expected. Minor flooding may also occur in some locations.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 24.50N | 94.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 25.40N | 95.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 26.30N | 97.30W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 27.20N | 98.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 28.20N | 100.10W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
