Current Location: 29.8N, 71.4W
Geographic Reference: 475 miles SE of Cape Fear, NC
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 130 mph gusting to 160 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 31 out of a possible 50 points (16 size, 15 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 32 out of a possible 50 points (16 size, 16 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 175 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 175 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected for the North Carolina coast south of Jacksonville, NC.
2. A catastrophic inland flood event is expected for North and South Carolina
3. The threat of strong hurricane-force wind has increased for northern South Carolina.
Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane has recently arrived in Florence. The plane is confirming that Florence is undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle. During this cycle, the current eyewall will be replaced by a larger eye by this afternoon. This will result in some weakening of Florence over the next 3-6 hours, followed by another strengthening phase.
As for intensity, we think that Florence will approach Cape Fear as a category 4 hurricane with max sustained wind near 130 mph. As Florence stalls just offshore, we think it will steadily weaken to a category 2 hurricane with max sustained wind near 110 mph prior to moving ashore into South Carolina on Saturday morning. By the time Florence reaches the Georgia border, it should have weakened to a tropical depression or a remnant low pressure area.
The stall near the coast means that there will be more than 24 hours of destructive hurricane force winds and tidal surges affecting the southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions could persist through Saturday morning. In addition to the wind and tidal surges, historic freshwater flooding is also expected. Areas of southeastern North Carolina and northern South Carolina could see well in excess of 30 inches of rain. Heavy rains, possibly in excess of 20 inches are likely for inland parts of northern South Carolina as well as southern North Carolina due to the very slow inland progression of Florence.
Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected along the coast. Significant tidal surge damage may occur for the southern Outer Banks, with less damage likely for the northern Outer Banks. Catastrophic damage from inland flooding is also expected for central and eastern North Carolina.
South Carolina: Wind damage is likely for areas from Myrtle Beach northward, along with widespread power outages. Some surge damage may also occur. Severe flooding is also expected both on the coast and inland in northern South Carolina
Southern and SE Virginia : The risk of flooding continues to decrease.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 35 feet to 45 feet may occur within 100 miles of the track of Florence on Wednesday into Thursday off the coast of South and North Carolina. Combined seas as high as 20 to 30 feet may occur off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware Wednesday through Thursday.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 29.80N | 71.40W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 31.40N | 73.70W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 32.80N | 75.50W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 33.60N | 76.90W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 33.80N | 77.70W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 33.80N | 78.40W | 115 mph | 140 mph | Category 3 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.60N | 79.00W | 105 mph | 125 mph | Category 2 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 33.40N | 80.20W | 75 mph | 85 mph | Category 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 88 | 1AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 33.40N | 80.70W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 33.50N | 81.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 34.30N | 83.10W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 17 | 35.30N | 83.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
