Hurricane Florence Track Chart, Advisory #46

Current Location: 25.3N, 61.0W
Geographic Reference: 1175 miles SE of Wilmington, NC
Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph
Max Winds: 145 mph gusting to 175 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 24 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 17 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 32 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 19 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Steadily Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Florence is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast, in the vicinity of Wilmington as a strong category 3 or possibly a category 4 hurricane Thursday evening.
2. Severe damage from wind and tidal surge is expected.
3. A major inland flood event is expected for eastern and central North Carolina, as well as southern Virginia.

Our Forecast
A recon plane currently investigating Florence has found that max sustained winds are approaching 145 mph, making Florence a very strong category 4 hurricane. The central pressure continues to fall, indicating additional strengthening is likely. We are now forecasting Florence to peak at around 155 mph winds tomorrow and Wednesday before a slight weakening prior to landfall on Thursday evening. Winds at landfall will likely be in the 125 mph to 140 mph range, which would make Florence a category 4 hurricane at landfall.

With the exception of the greater intensity, we have not made any significant changes to the forecast track in this advisory. Once Florence reaches the North Carolina coast near Wilmington Thursday evening, it will track slowly northwest and northward across central North Carolina during the day on Friday, becoming a remnant low pressure area near the Virginia border on Saturday. Even though Florence will not have the strong winds when it reaches southern Virginia, it will still be capable of producing very heavy rainfall through at least Saturday.

Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected, especially along the coast of the Onslow Bay. Significant tidal surge damage may occur for the southern Outer Banks, with less damage likely for the northern Outer Banks. Major damage from inland flooding is also expected for central and eastern North Carolina.
Southern and SE Virginia : Major flood damage is likely for south central Virginia, with widespread street flooding likely for southeast Virginia. Coastal areas of Virginia will likely experience very high waves resulting in some coastal flooding.
DelMarVa Peninsula: Some flooding is possible for the Delmarva Peninsula, with the greatest threat being located in the Virginia portion of the peninsula.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 35 feet to 45 feet may occur within 100 miles of the track of Florence on Wednesday into Thursday off the coast of South and North Carolina. Combined seas as high as 20 to 30 feet may occur off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware Wednesday through Thursday.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM EDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Mon Sep 10 25.30N 61.00W 145 mph 175 mph Category 4 7 17 24
12 3AM CDT Tue Sep 11 26.10N 63.90W 155 mph 185 mph Category 4 10 20 30
24 3PM CDT Tue Sep 11 27.20N 66.80W 155 mph 185 mph Category 4 11 20 31
36 3AM CDT Wed Sep 12 28.80N 69.80W 155 mph 185 mph Category 4 11 20 31
48 3PM CDT Wed Sep 12 30.50N 72.50W 150 mph 180 mph Category 4 13 19 32
60 3AM CDT Thu Sep 13 32.10N 75.00W 150 mph 180 mph Category 4 13 19 32
72 3PM CDT Thu Sep 13 33.60N 77.00W 145 mph 175 mph Category 4 12 17 29
81 12AM CDT Fri Sep 14 34.30N 78.00W 140 mph 160 mph Category 4 12 16 28
84 3AM CDT Fri Sep 14 34.50N 78.30W 115 mph 150 mph Category 3 10 11 21
90 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 35.00N 78.70W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 5 5 10
96 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 35.50N 79.10W 60 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
108 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 36.10N 79.30W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
120 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 36.40N 79.70W 35 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.