Current Location: 24.9N, 59.0W
Geographic Reference: 1300 miles ESE of Cape Fear, North Carolina
Movement: West-northwest at 12 mph
Max Winds: 105 mph gusting to 125 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 9 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 32 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 19 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 110 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Intensifying
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Florence is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast, in the vicinity of Cape Fear, as a strong category 3 hurricane Thursday evening
2. Severe damage from wind and tidal surge is expected.
2. A major inland flood event is expected for eastern and central North Carolina, as well as southern Virginia.
Our Forecast
Florence has started to accelerate to the west-northwest. This motion is likely to continue for the next several days. Model guidance is a touch slower than it was earlier. Therefore, we are indicating a slightly slower motion. Florence is now forecast to strike near Cape Fear, North Carolina Thursday evening, a few hours later than it was previously forecast to strike. After landfall, Florence is forecast to remain farther inland than we were previously forecasting.
Florence continues to gradually intensify. Winds are now estimated to be 105 mph. Continued intensification is forecast due to very favorable environmental conditions. Even an eyewall replacement cycle may not be enough to cause significant weakening. Florence is still forecast to peak with winds of 150 mph Wednesday afternoon. Some weakening is likely on Thursday as Florence approaches the coast due to increased wind shear. Our forecast is still for Florence to be a very strong cateogry 3 hurricane with 125 mph sustained winds and gusts to 150 mph at landfall. However, there is some chance that it could strike as a category 4 hurricane. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected.
Florence is still forecast to move very slowly after landfall. In addition, it is expected to push farther inland than we were previously forecasting. This means that the risk of destructive flooding now extends into central North Carolina as well as southern Virginia.
Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected, especially along the coast of the Onslow Bay. Significant tidal surge damage may occur for the southern Outer Banks, with less damage likely for the northern Outer Banks. Major damage from inland flooding is also expected for central and eastern North Carolina.
Southern and SE Virginia : Major flood damage is likely for south central Virginia, with widespread street flooding likely for southeast Virginia. Coastal areas of Virginia will likely experience very high waves resulting in some coastal flooding.
DelMarVa Peninsula: Some flooding is possible for the Delmarva Peninsula, with the greatest threat being located in the Virginia portion of the peninsula.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 35 feet to 45 feet may occur within 100 miles of the track of Florence on Wednesday into Thursday off the coast of South and North Carolina. Combined seas as high as 20 to 30 feet may occur off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware Wednesday through Thursday.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 AM EDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 24.90N | 59.00W | 105 mph | 125 mph | Category 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 25.50N | 61.00W | 120 mph | 140 mph | Category 3 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 26.20N | 63.50W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 27.40N | 66.50W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 28.80N | 69.50W | 145 mph | 175 mph | Category 4 | 12 | 17 | 29 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 30.40N | 72.00W | 150 mph | 180 mph | Category 4 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 32.00N | 74.50W | 150 mph | 180 mph | Category 4 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 84 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 33.50N | 77.30W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 11 | 16 | 27 |
| 88 | 7PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 34.10N | 77.90W | 125 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.00N | 78.60W | 90 mph | 115 mph | Category 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 105 | 12PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.70N | 79.10W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 36.00N | 79.20W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 36.50N | 79.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 132 | 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 37.00N | 79.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 144 | 3AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 37.00N | 79.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 168 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 17 | 36.50N | 78.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
