Current Location: 24.5N, 57.1W
Geographic Reference: 710 miles southeast of Bermuda
Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 90 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (12 size, 16 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 130 miles
Organizational Trend: Rapidly Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Florence is now forecast to make landfall in eastern North Carolina as a category 3 hurricane on Thursday afternoon.
2. There is a risk of major flooding for eastern North Carolina, Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula.
Our Forecast
Latest model guidance indicates a faster forward speed for Florence on Tuesday and Wednesday. This would result in the center of Florence reaching the North Carolina coast on Thursday afternoon instead of Thursday night. Because of this, we have adjusted the time of landfall to be on Thursday afternoon. That is the only significant change in the forecast.
All models continue to indicate that Florence will slow its forward speed considerably as it nears the coast, perhaps with Florence performing a slow clockwise loop. While our forecast has Florence making this loop inland over North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, there is considerable uncertainty as to the precise location of Florence during this expected loop. It is possible that Florence will turn northward as the center nears the North Carolina coast. In that case, the center of Florence may track over the Outer Banks or be located just offshore during the loop.
Satellite imagery indicates that Florence has begun to strengthen more rapidly. A recon plane currently investigating Florence has found winds to at least 80 mph so far, but the investigation has not been completed. Florence may become a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph over the next 12-18 hours. Peak intensity may be 145 mph to 150 mph in 2-3 days. Beyond then, some weakening is expected prior to the center reaching the coast of North Carolina early on Friday morning, but Florence may still be a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph to 130 mph winds at landfall. Once inland, Josephine should steadily weaken to a tropical depression by this weekend.
Depending upon precisely where Florence tracks with respect to North Carolina and Virginia, there exists the potential for an extreme weather event along its path. Some models continue to indicate well over 30 inches of rainfall from Thursday afternoon through Sunday. Such rainfall could cause extensive flooding, affecting travel across the area for a week or more. However, it is way too far out to be confident where the heaviest rain will fall.
Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina and Southeast Virginia: There is the potential for significant wind damage and long lasting power outages. Flooding due to heavy rainfall is also likely. The greatest wind threat is to North Carolina, though heavy rain is likely to severely impact southeastern Virginia.
Coastal and southeast Georgia: Based upon the forecast track, the threat to this area is decreasing.
DelMarVa Peninsula: Widespread flooding is becoming possible from the Delmarva Peninsula southward. Any deviation to the east of our forecast track would greatly increase the risk of wind and tidal surge.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 35 feet to 45 feet may occur within 100 miles of the track of Florence on Wednesday into Thursday off the coast of South and North Carolina. Combined seas as high as 20 to 30 feet may occur off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware Wednesday through Friday
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM EDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Sun Sep 09 | 24.50N | 57.10W | 80 mph | 90 mph | Category 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 24.80N | 58.80W | 105 mph | 120 mph | Category 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 25.30N | 60.90W | 120 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 26.10N | 63.50W | 130 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 27.40N | 66.50W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 29.10N | 69.80W | 145 mph | 175 mph | Category 4 | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 30.80N | 72.60W | 140 mph | 165 mph | Category 4 | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| 84 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 32.70N | 75.30W | 130 mph | 155 mph | Category 4 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 34.60N | 77.50W | 125 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| 108 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.40N | 77.90W | 100 mph | 115 mph | Category 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| 120 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.80N | 77.70W | 75 mph | 85 mph | Category 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 132 | 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 36.10N | 77.50W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 144 | 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 36.30N | 77.10W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 156 | 3AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 36.20N | 76.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 168 | 3PM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 35.80N | 76.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
