Current Location: 30.2N, 88.2W
Geographic Reference: Near Dauphin Island, AL
Movement: Northwest at 14 mph
Max Winds: 65 mph gusting to 80 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. The worst of Gordon is currently impacting coastal Alabama.
2. There is a risk of inland flooding, especially in Arkansas.
Our Forecast
Gordon is about to make landfall on the coast of Alabama. The worst weather associated with Gordon is now impacting the coast of Alabama. Sustained tropical storm force winds are occurring with some areas seeing gusts over 60 mph. Any sustained winds in excess of 60 mph will be in a very small area near the center. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected. Most areas away from the immediate coast will not experience sustained tropical storm force winds.
The current northwesterly motion will result in Gordon moving inland near the Mississippi/Alabama Border within the next hour or two. Thereafter, the storm should move into southern Mississippi. Late tomorrow morning, it is expected to be near the Jackson, Mississippi area. By late tomorrow, we expect Gordon will begin to slow down. Gordon may be moving near 5 mph as it moves through Arkansas. Thus, there will be a risk of localized flooding in Arkansas as some areas could see 6 to 8 inches of rain.
Expected Impacts on Land
Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi to the Western Florida Panhandle: Power outages are occurring now. Any wind damage will be minor.
Western Mississippi and Arkansas. Areas of street flooding are likely to result in travel delays.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 30.20N | 88.20W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 2 | 11PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 30.50N | 88.50W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 32.00N | 90.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 33.20N | 91.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 33.90N | 92.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 34.50N | 93.10W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 35.20N | 93.80W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 36.00N | 93.90W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
