Current Location: 25.0N, 81.4W
Geographic Reference: 50 Miles NE of Key West, FL
Movement: West-northwest at 18 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Gordon’s max predicted winds at landfall have been increased to 50 mph.
2. The main impact over land will be heavy rain across south Florida today and across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Our Forecast
The National Hurricane Center has reclassified the disturbance as Tropical Storm Gordon this morning. Though the surface circulation center remains poorly-defined, there was at least one buoy report of 40 mph winds in a squall in the past hour. Satellite and radar imagery indicate that heavy squalls extend all the way up the eastern Florida Peninsula to Daytona Beach. These squalls will be moving across the southern half of Florida today as Gordon tracks across the southeastern Gulf.
We have not made any significant changes to the forecast track prior to landfall in southeast Louisiana tomorrow evening, though we did adjust the post-landfall track a bit to the east. In addition, we are indicating that Gordon’s winds at landfall will be 50 mph, which is 5 mph higher than in our last forecast. Moderate wind shear across the Gulf should prevent Gordon from becoming a stronger tropical storm.
Once Gordon moves inland, it should quickly weaken to a tropical depression and then a remnant low. Most of Gordon’s tropical storm-force winds will be felt offshore rather than inland across Louisiana. The primary threat for Louisiana and Mississippi will be the potential for very heavy rainfall as Gordon’s forward speed slows over northeast Louisiana Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mississippi Through Arkansas: Locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays Tuesday afternoon through Friday. The greatest risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi will be Tuesday and Wednesday, while the risk for Arkansas will mainly be Thursday and Friday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Squalls will begin reaching the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast by early Tuesday morning, meaning the last full day for any helicopter evacuations of offshore personnel will be today. Wind gusts in squalls could reach up to 60 mph on Tuesday, along with locally very rough seas.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT / 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 25.00N | 81.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 26.30N | 84.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.00N | 87.10W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 30 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.80N | 88.40W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 29.50N | 89.30W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 39 | 12AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.00N | 89.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 42 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.50N | 90.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 31.50N | 91.40W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 32.80N | 92.60W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 33.80N | 92.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
