Current Location: 27.0N, 84.0W
Geographic Reference: 390 miles SE of Gulfport, MS
Movement: Northwest at 16 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing slowly
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. While we are forecasting Gordon to make landfall as a very strong tropical storm, it has the potential to become a category 1 hurricane at landfall.
2. Gordon is likely to slow a little after landfall. Thus, there remains a risk of inland flooding.
3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to be confined to within 65 miles of the center.
Our Forecast
Recent aircraft data indicate that Gordon is gradually intensifying. Winds are now estimated at 60 mph. Gordon is still somewhat disorganized on satellite and radar. For this reason, we are not forecasting rapid intensification. Instead, Gordon is forecast to gradually intensify into a very strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds before landfall. That said, any intensification beyond what we are forecasting would result in Gordon becoming a hurricane. We estimate the chance of Gordon becoming a hurricane to be 40 percent. After landfall, Gordon is expected to rapidly weaken.
There has been little change to the forecast track. We still expect that Gordon will move into coastal Mississippi tomorrow night. Gordon is expected to be small. Winds of tropical storm force are only expected within 65 miles from the center. Thus, small changes in the forecast track could result in significant changes to the forecast winds. After landfall, there could be some slowing of the forward speed. Thus, there will be a threat of inland flooding
Expected Impacts Offshore
Squalls are starting to affect some of the deepwater lease areas. Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the night and into tomorrow. Wind gusts in squalls could reach up to 80 mph on Tuesday, along with locally very rough seas.
Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mississippi Through Arkansas: Locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays Tuesday afternoon through Friday. The greatest risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi will be Tuesday and Wednesday, while the risk for Arkansas will mainly be Thursday and Friday. Strong winds will likely cause widespread power outages near where the center makes landfall, along with minor wind damage. Coastal flooding is also expected.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by midnight CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 27.00N | 84.00W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.70N | 86.80W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 30.30N | 88.90W | 70 mph | 85 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 25 | 10PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 30.40N | 89.00W | 70 mph | 85 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 28 | 1AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.80N | 89.40W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 31.80N | 90.60W | 40 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 33.00N | 92.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 33.60N | 93.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 34.00N | 94.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 84 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 34.80N | 95.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
