Current Location: 22.7N, 77.7W
Geographic Reference: 290 miles ESE of Key West, FL
Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 90 percent
Key Points
1. The disturbance is steadily becoming better-organized and may become a depression within the next 24 hours.
2. Regardless of tropical development, the main impact over land will be heavy rain across south Florida and along the central Gulf Coast.
Our Forecast
The center of the disturbance has been relocated a little south of the previous estimate. We have not made any changes to the forecast track through landfall in southeast Louisiana on Tuesday night. However, we have adjusted the track westward on Wednesday and Thursday, taking the remnant low very slowly westward into northeast Texas.
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is slowly becoming better organized this afternoon. Thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated closer to what we think is a developing circulation center. If the current trend continues, then the disturbance will become a tropical depression within the next 12-24 hours, after it reaches the southeast Gulf tomorrow. The more rapid apparent development increases the chances that the system could be a little stronger at landfall. We have increased the predicted max winds to 45 mph prior to landfall. It is possible that it could even be stronger than that, all depending upon how quickly it organizes ove r the next 24 hours. However, most model guidance indicates a weak tropical storm at landfall.
We still think that this potential tropical storm will weaken quickly once it moves ashore into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday night. Any tropical storm-force winds should be confined to coastal parishes. The greatest threat along the track will be from very heavy rainfall Tuesday night through Thursday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mississippi Through Southeast Louisiana: Locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Squalls will begin reaching the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast by Tuesday morning, meaning the last full day for any helicopter evacuations of offshore personnel will be Monday. Wind gusts in squalls could reach up to 65 mph on Tuesday, along with locally very rough seas.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Sun Sep 02 | 22.70N | 77.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 24.10N | 81.10W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 03 | 25.40N | 83.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 26.70N | 86.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 28.30N | 88.60W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 54 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 | 29.20N | 89.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 30.10N | 90.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 05 | 31.40N | 92.30W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 84 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 32.00N | 93.30W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 06 | 32.50N | 94.40W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 108 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 07 | 32.70N | 95.70W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
